Time to repair old ties across the Atlantic

Prime ministerial visits to Washington are never easy affairs to manage. Expectations are raised of trade deals, revived relationships and new friendships that may or may not arise. Downing Street relishes the “optics” of seeing their man or woman alongside the leader of the free world, while always fretting that the UK is not being taken seriously enough.

Joe Biden has certainly made Rishi Sunak welcome and played up the importance of his two-day trip, his first since entering No 10. The Prime Minister is being accommodated in the White House guest house, often called “the world’s most exclusive hotel”, where the late Queen stayed in 2007. Though he declined the opportunity to pitch the ball, Mr Sunak attended a baseball match, a sport that will be familiar to him given his long-standing links with the US as both a graduate student and financier.

Indeed, he is probably as deeply immersed in American culture and politics as any occupant of No 10 and will hope to use that experience to forge a good personal rapport with the president, whom he has already met four times at various summits. Arguably, this is more critical when the US leader is a Democrat and the Prime Minister a Conservative. The political divide does not necessarily matter: Tony Blair managed a strong personal bond with both Bill Clinton and George W Bush. But it can be easier when both are on the same ideological side, as with Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan.

However, Mr Sunak may well have more in common with Mr Biden than he does with many leading Republicans. The connections between the US Republicans and the British Conservatives, once strong, seem almost non-existent, partly a reflection of the febrile nature of American Right-wing politics. The Tories need to reinvigorate their links to the Republicans, and in particular to the tax-cutting, small-state ideas being promoted by key figures on the American Right, though they are waiting to see who emerges as presidential candidate after next year’s primaries.

Yet Mr Sunak is in Washington to represent the UK’s interest, not his party’s, and has a job to do in restoring good bilateral relations with an administration that does not like Brexit and feels it made the UK a less influential ally in Europe. There was also friction over the Northern Ireland Protocol around the time of the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement, but Mr Sunak’s negotiation of the Windsor Framework with the EU has mollified the White House.

Unlike with the visits of his predecessors, there is no longer talk of securing a free trade deal with the US, not least because it is not on offer. In fact, Mr Sunak’s biggest beef with the US is Mr Biden’s £300  billion green subsidy package which Britain regards as protectionist. It is likely to siphon off the high-tech investment in renewables that the UK needs but is in danger of losing because of tax policies here. Mr Biden’s economic strategy is based around generous government support for domestic industries, tax breaks for investment and America-first supply chains to assert US strategic primacy.

On his flight to Washington, the Prime Minister said he would make a robust defence of free trade, but he is expected to avoid any direct criticism of the president’s subsidies programme when they give a joint news conference today. Nevertheless, if Mr Sunak is to bring one lesson back from his trip then it must be to make the UK more competitive to mitigate the threat this poses.

While much is made of the apparent divisions, there is a good deal of common ground between the two leaders. On international affairs, notably Ukraine, China and the Aukus deal, the administration and No 10 are probably more in lock-step than would be the case if a Republican were in the White House. Mr Sunak is also hoping to put the UK at the forefront of moves to regulate and develop artificial intelligence amid warnings from experts about the threat it poses unless controlled.

But there is inevitably a sense of transition about this visit because of its timing. The two leaders face elections next year, perhaps around the same time in the autumn unless Mr Sunak runs the full five-year term. They may develop a strong personal chemistry – but they both need to stay in office for it to mean anything.