The Prime Minister must now seize the initiative

In the event, the Prime Minister managed to see off a Commons rebellion over his Rwanda legislation, which passed its second reading comfortably on the fourth anniversary of the Conservatives’ 2019 general election triumph. Right-wing MPs baulked at the nuclear option of precipitating a leadership crisis before Christmas, opting instead to abstain en masse. Rishi Sunak’s authority has arguably been left strengthened. 

But they were at pains to make clear that the threat they pose has not gone away. Speaking before the vote, Mark Francois of the European Research Group said that they intended to table amendments to “materially improve the Bill”. Many on the Conservative Right are not convinced that, at present, the legislation will succeed in its objective of ensuring that migrants are deported to Rwanda before the next general election.

These amendments are likely to prove anathema to the Tory Left, as represented by the One Nation caucus, who have said they will refuse to accept changes that will breach the UK’s supposed international obligations. The Bill also has to pass the Lords, and there is not thought to be the time to ram it through using the Parliament Act. 

No 10 will perhaps be content to have pushed further parliamentary rows back into January, providing political breathing space over Christmas. But to do what? The Prime Minister will have to work to ensure that the extra time ends up helping him rather than hindering him.

Politics as an exercise in merely getting through the week is a dispiriting business for voters, who expect the Government to be able to act on their concerns. There must surely be room for creative improvements to the legislation that would not necessarily result in a fracturing of the party. While at the root of the Tory divisions is a fundamental split over the extent to which international legal obligations should constrain the country’s ability to control its borders, ministers should be prepared to look favourably on constructive proposals to make the Bill more likely to succeed. 

If No 10 does not learn the right lessons from the vote, the danger is that disquiet over the Rwanda policy comes to combine with anger on the backbenches over other policies, as well as the stubborn refusal of the opinion polls to respond to his various resets. The Prime Minister needs to return next year with a strategy to unite his party as best as possible and make progress towards stopping the boats. He has to seize the initiative.