Time to be bold, Prime Minister

The Conservative Party is in serious trouble. Thursday’s by-elections saw Tamworth and Mid-Bedfordshire, seats that had previously delivered huge Tory majorities, turn red. There was little comfort in the fact that the votes had been precipitated by the departure of MPs accused of neglecting their constituencies. The bald facts are that Conservative support collapsed, Labour won, and time before the next general election is fast running out. 

The Tories are failing to motivate Conservative voters to come out in their support. Neither Tamworth nor Mid-Bedfordshire are natural Labour areas that will be enthused by the party’s prospectus of centre-Left economics and identity politics. Sir Keir Starmer is benefiting from frustration with his opponents, rather than excitement at his own plans. Indeed, Labour’s support barely changed compared to four years ago (albeit on a much lower turnout).

No, what should worry the Government is that so many Conservative voters are deciding to stay at home. Rishi Sunak has, to some extent, recognised this. His moves to moderate the UK’s net zero plans are likely to deliver significant benefits to consumers worried about the consequences of extreme environmentalism. There is an argument for him to go much further, particularly in terms of bringing down energy bills. He was also right to reconsider the expensive plans for HS2.

But such action cannot be limited to electric cars and heat pumps. There is a strong case for the Chancellor, at the coming Autumn Statement, to announce major tax cuts that will be introduced before the next general election, to reassure the public that the party has not definitively thrown off its low taxation mantle. This could be paid for by restricting the growth of the benefits bill. It is perverse that some still seem to think that an out-of-control welfare state is popular among working taxpayers. 

On illegal migration, the Tories have to show they are serious about stopping the boats – including by withdrawing from the European Convention on Human Rights if necessary. On crime, they need a much more ambitious plan to build new prisons to lock more criminals up, rather than release them. On Brexit, they should want to exploit its benefits, rather than neglect them. On security, they will have to prove to a sceptical public that the police 
is in control of the streets, not extreme eco-activists or pro-Hamas radicals. 

Time may be short, but that is a reason to be more radical, not more cautious. The Government has to give Tory voters more and better reasons to vote Conservative. Is it prepared to do so?