Amid the chaos in the Middle East, Ukraine is becoming the forgotten war. President Volodymyr Zelensky said the Israel-Hamas conflict was “taking away the focus” from Russia’s continuing bombardment of his country.
That, indeed, was the ambition of the Kremlin once it became clear the early victory it sought would not happen. A war of attrition has followed, with Russia able to withstand it for far longer than its adversary, unless Nato continues to supply weapons to Ukraine.
But the West’s gaze has shifted, to the frustration of President Zelensky, just as the ground war is about to be wound down as the autumn rains make it hard for the forces to move around. Ukraine’s commanders fear the conflict is now a stalemate after their counteroffensive in the South made little headway despite an attack on Russian shipping in Crimea.
The great concern in Kyiv, and the hope in Moscow, is that the West grows weary of a protracted conflict, something that was beginning to happen even before the Hamas assault on Israel.
For all the promises of supporting Ukraine “for as long as it takes”, war fatigue among Nato countries was always a risk, with Republicans in America, the biggest contributor to Ukraine’s war effort, sceptical about a continuing commitment.
Without a steady supply of weapons, Ukraine will face a perilous moment next spring, by which time the Russians will have rearmed and called up more soldiers to replace the thousands lost. Ukraine has been promised American F-16 fighters to counter Russia’s command of the skies, yet there is no sign of their delivery and pilots would need to be trained.
Better anti-aircraft defences are urgently needed to stop Russia targeting towns and infrastructure with impunity. However perilous events now are in the Middle East, the West must not lose sight of Ukraine and the need to continue support in its fight against Russian aggression.
This is one reason why the Israel-Hamas conflict must be confined to the destruction of the terrorist group and not spill over into a wider war, which would draw Nato countries deeper into the mire.
The same is happening with Israel, which was promised unequivocal support after the Oct 7 attack but is now being prevailed upon, even by Washington, to halt their action on humanitarian grounds. How long before Ukraine comes under pressure to consider a negotiated settlement? The beneficiaries would be Putin and other autocrats.