Boldness at home could save the Tories

Rishi Sunak has returned from the Nato summit in Vilnius with his status on the world stage affirmed. Britain took a leading role at the summit, stepping out to push for Ukrainian accession where other countries faltered. The Prime Minister told the gathered press – as well as Vladimir Putin who was doubtless watching from Moscow – that “Ukraine’s rightful place is in Nato”. 

Indeed, in his short time in office, Mr Sunak has achieved numerous foreign policy successes, including a new defence partnership with Japan, the Atlantic Declaration with the United States, and negotiating Britain’s accession to the CPTPP, a vital Asia-Pacific trade bloc. 

Such achievements should not be underplayed. Yet Mr Sunak returns to a less optimistic state of affairs at home. Next Thursday three by-elections will take place: in London, rural Yorkshire, and Somerset. Each seat was won comfortably in the previous general election; each may now be lost in what could prove a bruising night for the Conservatives. For the Prime Minister, it is an unfortunate fact of democratic politics that foreign policy must generally come second to domestic affairs. 

There remains around a year until a general election which the Conservatives are widely expected to lose, and next week could prove a foretaste of things to come – unless Mr Sunak finds a way to revive his fortunes. This is by no means impossible; if the Prime Minister can channel the energy and zeal which has delivered his foreign policy successes into domestic affairs, then he may find that Labour’s polling lead is less daunting than it appears. The common thread in Mr Sunak’s achievements abroad has been his willingness to make bold choices and lead the nation rather than be led by polls or consensus. He was willing to offer Ukraine tanks and help form a coalition to provide fighter jets, even when it came at the risk of upsetting figures in Washington.

Today, there is no lack of ambitious domestic ideas that he could adopt, putting clear blue water between the Conservatives and the Labour Party on policy and potentially in the polls. The rewards could be great, and the decisions would not necessarily be costly. 

Take the current timeline for net zero. It is becoming increasingly clear that the 2050 target will not be met without straining British industry or household budgets. The heat pumps rollout is stalling as households show little inclination to fit costly devices ill suited to our housing stock. Even if they did, we are woefully short of the skilled staff necessary to install them. Recent plans for a trial “hydrogen village” fell apart when residents proved implacably opposed to the idea, putting a hole in the Government’s plan for the UK to be a “world-leading hydrogen economy”.

Nowhere is the folly of the current approach clearer than in the drive to ban petrol cars by 2030. Even the EU and Justin Trudeau’s Canada – no strangers to economically damaging decisions – are waiting for 2035, and Germany’s carmakers have already secured a large carve-out for internal combustion engines burning carbon-neutral e-fuels. 

The UK, on the other hand, is pushing ahead with the ban, such that other countries can learn from the costly mistakes that will inevitably be made in its implementation. 

The political costs associated with these policies should not be taken lightly. The expansion of Ulez in London is backfiring on the city’s mayor, Sadiq Khan, with workers feeling they are being punished for driving. Even Sir Keir Starmer has been less than full-throated in his support for the scheme. 

A review of the net zero target and petrol car ban would not just be economically responsible, it could also command popular support at a time when the rhetoric of decarbonisation is starting to be felt in household budgets. Nor would it have to come at the planet’s expense; Britain is well positioned to lead the development of new green technologies, and to exploit them. Doubling down on our world-leading science capabilities could well be the greatest contribution we can make to a healthier environment.

Other opportunities for Mr Sunak include issues such as inheritance tax, which generates relatively little revenue but causes great distress to families. It is deeply unpopular with many who rightly see it as a tax on aspiration. Abolishing it would mark the Conservatives out as the party of the strivers, against Labour’s redistributionist socialist tendencies. And while the public finances remain in a precarious state, as the OBR reminded us this week, the tax raises just 0.7 per cent of all receipts. 

These finances might in turn be strengthened by scrapping ruinously expensive white elephants such as HS2, which has been delayed to the point of irrelevance. 

Away from the economy, there are vital social issues to confront. The debate on gender ideology continues to rage, angering parents and distracting schools, while Labour politicians struggle to define precisely what a woman is. Surely there is a line to be drawn here between the blue and red; the sensible and ideological? 

While polls continue to show a Labour lead, Mr Sunak should be encouraged by the observation that the public has not particularly warmed to Sir Keir. He has failed, thus far, to establish himself as a credible national leader, and recently abandoned a key plank of his economic strategy. Meanwhile, many Conservative voters simply need a vision to rally around. 

Few would have believed in 2021 that the most popular policy decision taken by the Government would be to weigh in on a conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Our policy on the Ukraine war has succeeded because it is right. Applying this approach to the domestic agenda may yet turn the tide.