Russia’s instability must strengthen our resolve

The world watched, aghast, as a remarkable sequence of events unfolded in Russia and, once again, an army marched on Moscow, before it was suddenly called off. Regardless of the accommodation reached, this is undoubtedly a disastrous moment for Vladimir Putin: his ambitions yesterday were turned on their head. The Russian president initiated his barbaric invasion last February to implement regime change in Ukraine, but found himself defending his own regime from a mutiny attempt by Russian mercenaries. 

Putin has only himself to blame for the internal strife that will continue to grip Moscow. His attempt to dissolve a nation’s borders, and gut its identity – absurdly claiming that Ukraine, a country led by a Jewish president, had been taken over by Nazis – was an insult to humanity. His attacks on Ukrainian cities were depraved. He over-reached horrendously, his hubris costing thousands of lives and ruining those of millions. As the perpetrator of a monstrous war on freedom, human rights, the rule of law and the right to self-government, he must be brought to justice.

Yet the mercenaries who challenged him were cut from the same cloth. The Wagner Group’s soldiers are hardened criminals with a brutal indifference to casualties, be they Ukrainians or young Russian conscripts. The advance battalion on Moscow’s outskirts was led by Dmitry Utkin, well known for his apparent SS tattoos. Wagner’s nefarious influence on the world extends far beyond Europe: it was accused of stirring the recent conflict in Sudan, having reportedly sought out its large gold reserves. In the Central African Republic, around 2,000 Wagner personnel are said to be providing support to government troops in the ongoing civil war. Across the Middle East and Africa, Wagner stands accused of human rights abuses, propping up authoritarian regimes and plundering mineral resources.

At the start of this year, Prigozhin declared Wagner as probably “the most experienced army in the world today”. Analysts had increasingly come to believe that, with the war progressing so badly and the Wagner chief having amassed so much influence, he could be planning to challenge Putin in presidential elections next year. In the end attempted a faster, more violent route, but his efforts ended almost as quickly as they started.

Nevertheless, this episode represented a catastrophic humiliation for the Russian president, the first real challenge to his power in his long rule. It is remarkable that the situation reached such a febrile state. As Putin will be well aware, leaders who are built up as strongmen can quickly fall once their authority is challenged. This has especially been the case in Russian history – a country whose powerful rulers are tempered by violent deposition.

Now, with Russia looking more unstable, the consequences of its turbulent politics, with its 6,000 nuclear warheads, should not be taken lightly. This weekend a truly disastrous outcome – whereby weapons of mass destruction would be in the hands of mercenaries – was all too easy to imagine. We must hope now that an anxious Putin does not lash out by triggering a major calamity on Ukrainian soil. These are surely matters that Western governments should urgently be considering as the situation develops.

Earlier this week, President Zelensky said that the counter-offensive was going “slower than desired”. This was leading to a sense of nervousness among some Western allies. But the recent disarray within Russia’s military ranks, with thousands of Wagner troops deemed untrustworthy, could give Ukraine an advantage. In one recent video, Prigozhin contradicted the Kremlin’s claims that the Ukraine counter-offensive is failing. “The Russian army is retreating in the Zaporizhia and Kherson regions. Ukrainian troops are advancing.” This will be a message that many Russians will hear loud and clear, regardless of last night’s events.

The Western alliance must now redouble its efforts to secure Ukraine’s sovereignty and the eventual withdrawal of Russian forces. We must not just continue the flow of weapons but accelerate it, and in this the Americans will need to take the lead. We need a plan to help Ukraine in the air, whether by supplying jets or through other means.

Given the risk of further instability in Moscow, the West also needs a well-thought-through strategy to reduce the threat of nuclear proliferation. The world is once again entering a period of radical uncertainty, as a nuclear power grapples with political failure at home and military failure abroad. It is time for calm and resolve.